A U.S. recession is all but unavoidable for next year, according to a majority of leading economists in a new poll.
Nearly 70% of 49 respondents expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession next year, according to the FT survey conducted with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth’s School of Business that published Sunday.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast now sees economic growth in the second quarter coming in at 0.9%, following a 1.5% contraction during the first quarter.
A third of those surveyed — results were gathered between June 6 and June 9 — see the NBER’s recession call holding off until the second half of next year, while about 40% see it during the first or second quarters of 2023. The survey was conducted before Friday’s U.S. consumer price inflation data which showed May headline number unexpectedly surging to a new cycle high of 8.6% year-over-year.
Some banks were forecasting a 75 basis point hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. Ahead of the CPI release, the consensus was that the Fed would lift by a half point.